Education

Research Description

Dr. Berglund's research interests are in the development of new computational methodologies to explore the influence of feedbacks among social and infrastructure systems. Her research creates new socio-technical models by integrating Complex Adaptive Systems modeling approaches with engineering models to simulate feedback mechanisms and adaptive behaviors among consumers, infrastructure, and environmental systems. New Evolutionary Algorithm-based approaches are coupled with socio-technical models to identify optimal adaptive strategies for managing sustainability, security, and resilience of complex infrastructure and water resources systems. Specifically, she is exploring the sustainability of urban water supply and protection of human health in water contamination incidents. Dr. Berglund specializes in water management; water reclamation and conservation; water security; complex adaptive systems; agent-based modeling; evolutionary computation; human behavior; and social dimensions.

Publications

A sociotechnical framework to characterize tipping points in water supply systems

Berglund, E. Z., Skarbek, M., & Kanta, L. (2023), SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY, 97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2023.104739

Agent-based modeling to assess decentralized water systems: Micro-trading rainwater for aquifer recharge

Bolton, E. R., & Berglund, E. Z. (2023), JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 618. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129151

Customer complaint management and smart technology adoption by community water systems

DiCarlo, M., Berglund, E. Z., Kaza, N., Grieshop, A., Shealy, L., & Behr, A. (2023), UTILITIES POLICY, 80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2022.101465

Digital Twins for Water Distribution Systems

Berglund, E. Z., Shafiee, M. E., Xing, L., & Wen, J. (2023), JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, 149(3). https://doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5786

A Hybrid Data-Driven-Agent-Based Modelling Framework for Water Distribution Systems Contamination Response during COVID-19

Kadinski, L., Salcedo, C., Boccelli, D. L., Berglund, E., & Ostfeld, A. (2022), WATER, 14(7). https://doi.org/10.3390/w14071088

A Sequential Pressure-Based Algorithm for Data-Driven Leakage Identification and Model-Based Localization in Water Distribution Networks

Daniel, I., Pesantez, J., Letzgus, S., Fasaee, M. A. K., Alghamdi, F., Berglund, E., … Cominola, A. (2022), JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, 148(6). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001535

An Agent-Based Model for Contamination Response in Water Distribution Systems during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Kadinski, L., Berglund, E., & Ostfeld, A. (2022), JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, 148(8). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001576

Can Common Pool Resource Theory Catalyze Stakeholder-Driven Solutions to the Freshwater Salinization Syndrome?

Grant, S. B., Rippy, M. A., Birkland, T. A., Schenk, T., Rowles, K., Misra, S., … Zhong, Y. (2022, September 14), ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Vol. 9. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c01555

Developing early warning systems to predict water lead levels in tap water for private systems

Fasaee, M. A. K., Pesantez, J., Pieper, K. J., Ling, E., Benham, B., Edwards, M., & Berglund, E. (2022), WATER RESEARCH, 221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118787

Effectiveness of indicators for assessing the vulnerability of barrier island highways

Behr, A., Berglund, E., & Sciaudone, E. (2022), TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT, 105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103234

View all publications via NC State Libraries

Grants

Development of Dissolved Oxygen Modeling Guidance

NC Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ)(8/01/23 - 7/31/25)

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Development of Dissolved Oxygen Modeling Guidance

Sponsor: NC Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ)

Start Date: 8/01/23

End Date: 7/31/25

Abstract

Water quality modeling is a critical tool for evaluating municipal and industrial discharges to North Carolina’s surface waters. This project will provide guidance on modeling approaches to assess discharger impacts on dissolved oxygen conditions. Recommendations will include suggested model types, model configurations, data input requirements, and model performance standards.

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A Citizen Science Internship Program to Quantify Racial and Economic Disparities in Lead Levels in Drinking Water Across North Carolina

NCSU Water Resources Research Institute(9/01/21 - 8/31/23)

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A Citizen Science Internship Program to Quantify Racial and Economic Disparities in Lead Levels in Drinking Water Across North Carolina

Sponsor: NCSU Water Resources Research Institute

Start Date: 9/01/21

End Date: 8/31/23

Abstract

Ninety-seven of the one hundred counties in North Carolina have at least one community water system with leaded infrastructure. Collectively, these systems serve 10 million people. In 20 counties, 80% or more of the water systems reported leaded infrastructure, serving a total of over one million North Carolinians. Unfortunately, water systems do not have records with sufficient detail to identify highest risk areas at finer spatial scales. Furthermore, there is virtually no data, at any scale, about the privately owned portions of the water transportation systems, namely the privately owned portion of the service line and the household premise plumbing. This proposal addresses the problem that leaded drinking water infrastructure poses a significant health risk across NC. Water utilities cannot properly manage water lead levels without sufficient data about leaded premise plumbing and lead in tap water at households. The EPA funded a project to create Crowd the Tap, a citizen science project in which households share information about their drinking water infrastructure. We propose a Citizen Science Internship program at Shaw University in which student interns function as ambassadors for Crowd the Tap, carrying out direct outreach (in accordance with COVID safety protocols) to priority communities in order to fill data gaps particularly for the DEQs Needs Assessment, NGO/CBO lead mitigation programs, and a statistical model to reliably predict household risk of lead.

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Water Distribution Systems Management Under COVID-X

US-Israel Binational Science Foundation(10/01/21 - 9/30/23)

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Water Distribution Systems Management Under COVID-X

Sponsor: US-Israel Binational Science Foundation

Start Date: 10/01/21

End Date: 9/30/23

Abstract

Recent research has shown that water demands have significantly changed during the pandemic. New patterns are emerging both in diurnal patterns and in the volume of demands exerted at residential vs. non-residential nodes, and these changes can affect the operation and management of water infrastructure. Changes in water demands are caused by social distancing that individuals adopt in response to the pandemic, as community members make decisions to comply with shelter-in-place orders or choose to self-quarantine. Decisions about social distancing are driven by perceptions of risk and assessment of coping capacity, based on the Protection-Motivation Theory. In this research, we propose to develop a coupled agent-based model and hydraulic framework to capture how the interactions among individuals lead to community compliance with shelter-in-place orders, changes in water demands, and impacts on water infrastructure performance. The agent-based model will simulate households as individual entities with rules encoded to represent that households share and receive information through social networks; assess risk and appraise coping strategies; make decisions about working remotely and visiting places of business; and use water based on their decisions to comply with shelter-in-place orders. The agent-based model will be coupled with hydraulic simulation of the water infrastructure to evaluate changes in hydraulic performance and explore needed changes in operations. The agent-based model that is developed through this research will simulate how the spread of information affects compliance with social distancing directives and the pattern and location of water demands. Changes in daily patterns of behaviour translate to changes in consumption of infrastructure services and natural resources, which has broad applications for management of infrastructure systems, including water distribution systems.

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A Citizen Science Internship Program to Quantify Racial and Economic Disparities in Lead Levels in Drinking Water Across North Carolina

NCSU Water Resources Research Institute(9/01/21 - 8/31/23)

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A Citizen Science Internship Program to Quantify Racial and Economic Disparities in Lead Levels in Drinking Water Across North Carolina

Sponsor: NCSU Water Resources Research Institute

Start Date: 9/01/21

End Date: 8/31/23

Abstract

Ninety-seven of the one hundred counties in North Carolina have at least one community water system with leaded infrastructure. Collectively, these systems serve 10 million people. In 20 counties, 80% or more of the water systems reported leaded infrastructure, serving a total of over one million North Carolinians. Unfortunately, water systems do not have records with sufficient detail to identify highest risk areas at finer spatial scales. Furthermore, there is virtually no data, at any scale, about the privately owned portions of the water transportation systems, namely the privately owned portion of the service line and the household premise plumbing. This proposal addresses the problem that leaded drinking water infrastructure poses a significant health risk across NC. Water utilities cannot properly manage water lead levels without sufficient data about leaded premise plumbing and lead in tap water at households. The EPA funded a project to create Crowd the Tap, a citizen science project in which households share information about their drinking water infrastructure. We propose a Citizen Science Internship program at Shaw University in which student interns function as ambassadors for Crowd the Tap, carrying out direct outreach (in accordance with COVID safety protocols) to priority communities in order to fill data gaps particularly for the DEQs Needs Assessment, NGO/CBO lead mitigation programs, and a statistical model to reliably predict household risk of lead.

Close

National Priorities: Transdisciplinary Research into Detecting and Controlling Lead in Drinking Water

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)(4/01/18 - 3/31/23)

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National Priorities: Transdisciplinary Research into Detecting and Controlling Lead in Drinking Water

Sponsor: US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Start Date: 4/01/18

End Date: 3/31/23

Abstract

The EPA lead and copper rule shares responsibility for reducing water lead hazards between water utilities and consumers. The first incarnation of this rule appropriately emphasized utility-centric frameworks with corrosion control, pipe replacement in some circumstances and public education. Over-confidence in the effectiveness of corrosion control and pressures on utilities and regulators to cut corners to support the utility centric framework have resulted in several water crisis in which consumers were falsely informed that their water is safe to drink when it was not. Revelations from the Flint water crisis and its aftermath has undermined consumer trust in government at all levels, the U.S. EPA, water utilities, and potable water quality, in general. The obvious failure of the utility-centric model has caused many consumers to abandon potable water for cooking and drinking, which has serious financial impacts on consumers, negative implications for environmental and fiscal sustainability of cities, and has fueled environmental justice concerns in Flint and elsewhere. This research proposes a bottom-up consumer-centric framework to complement and balance the existing top-down utility-centric approach. Research goals are to 1) help consumers to first understand their personal responsibility to protect themselves from water lead risks dependent on their particular circumstance (e.g., responsible party for corrosion control, responsible party for lead bearing plumbing, source water chemistry), 2) develop quantitative models and resources that help consumers predict their relative risk for elevated lead in water as a function of their water supply, neighborhood and existing plumbing materials, 3) examine low cost sampling test methodologies and approaches that can help consumers verify the model predicted risk, 4) evaluate the costs and benefits of potential interventions, and 5) help restore trust and the water utilities role as an honest broker. Three in-depth case studies will be executed to gather data to inform the quantitative models and the consumer-centric bottom-up framework, which represent extremes of responsibility currently placed on consumers including: 1) private well owners who have 100% responsibility for controlling water lead risks, 2) State of MI residents served by public water supplies who will be protected by the most rigorous lead and copper rule in the nation effective 2018, and 3) residents of small rural potable systems whose are supposedly protected by the existing LCR but who live in circumstances that historically have made compliance difficult to achieve. These case studies will demonstrate that the level of responsibility that is placed on the consumer, ultimately determine the framework and quantitative models that they will need to follow, in order to appropriately share their responsibility.

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Modeling Approaches for Predicting Water Lead Risks in Underserved Communities

Spring Point Partners LLC(8/29/17 - 12/31/18)

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Modeling Approaches for Predicting Water Lead Risks in Underserved Communities

Sponsor: Spring Point Partners LLC

Start Date: 8/29/17

End Date: 12/31/18

Abstract

The EPA lead and copper rule shares responsibility for reducing water lead hazards between water utilities and consumers. The first incarnation of this rule appropriately emphasized utility-centric frameworks with corrosion control, pipe replacement in some circumstances and public education. Over-confidence in the effectiveness of corrosion control and pressures on utilities and regulators to cut corners to support the utility centric framework have resulted in several water crisis in which consumers were falsely informed that their water is safe to drink when it was not. Revelations from the Flint water crisis and its aftermath has undermined consumer trust in government at all levels, the U.S. EPA, water utilities, and potable water quality, in general. The obvious failure of the utility-centric model has caused many consumers to abandon potable water for cooking and drinking, which has serious financial impacts on consumers, negative implications for environmental and fiscal sustainability of cities, and has fueled environmental justice concerns in Flint and elsewhere. This research proposes to develop a model to assist citizens in identifying their risk of lead in water. Research goals are to develop quantitative models and resources that help consumers predict their relative risk for elevated lead in water as a function of their water supply, neighborhood and existing plumbing materials. Two in-depth case studies will be executed to gather data to inform the quantitative models, which represent extremes of responsibility currently placed on consumers including: 1) private well owners who have 100% responsibility for controlling water lead risks, 2) State of MI residents served by public water supplies who will be protected by the most rigorous lead and copper rule in the nation effective 2018.

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LAS D05 Berglund Task 5.5 Advanced Concepts

Laboratory for Analytic Sciences(3/24/15 - 12/31/15)

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LAS D05 Berglund Task 5.5 Advanced Concepts

Sponsor: Laboratory for Analytic Sciences

Start Date: 3/24/15

End Date: 12/31/15

Abstract

Classical game theory is problematic in practice---behavioral economists have shown that human beings do not use the minimax principle when making strategic decisions. Instead, human beings are boundedly rational, in many ways: we do not perform complex mental calculations, we satisfice, we use heuristics, we overestimate rare threats and underestimate common ones, we are biased in favor of the outcomes we seek, and are otherwise flawed in many well-documented ways. To replace game theory, some researchers are exploring Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA), in which the decision-maker builds a model for the strategic thinking of her opponent, and then takes the action that maximizes her expected utility. The decision-maker, usually a Bayesian, places personal or empirical probabilities on all these unknowns, and then makes the choice that has the largest expected payoff. Although potentially complex in practice, in theory ARA is a straightforward application of decision analysis. Our proposal focuses upon defense of critical network infrastructure, and specifically upon a city water supply system. However, there are many other applications that involve networks, such as road systems, air traffic, cybersecurity, and supply chains. Methodological progress on the water supply system problem can be transferred, to a significant degree, to those other applications, although the kinds of attacks, the magnitude of the consequences, and the costs of countermeasures will surely change. This research will build a realistic ARA-ABM model for both radicalization of opponents and strategic investment in defense. We will develop an agent-based model (ABM) that will enable application of adversarial risk analysis to decision-making in the context of protecting a network, such as a road or communications network, or a civic water supply system. Subsequently, an emulator will be used to allow statistical inference on the ABM.

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National Center of Sustainable Water Infrastructure Modeling

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)(9/01/16 - 8/31/21)

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National Center of Sustainable Water Infrastructure Modeling

Sponsor: US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Start Date: 9/01/16

End Date: 8/31/21

Abstract

The goal of the project is to develop a center to support Research, Outreach, and Code Development, which will lead to vital improvements in water resources (WR) software for modeling sustainable systems. Building long-term financial and technical foundations requires that sustainability of effort guides our thinking. The Center must be consistent with EPA’s imperatives and interests, but equally important is a sound plan for income, investment, and delivery ensuring a strong enterprise that survives past the initial public funding. Our team builds on proven models of success for a sustainable Center that will be a force in WR software by developing a community who will have sense of ownership and engagement. The Center will be a beneficial partner to industry as well as meeting the needs of EPA and the WR community. The long-term financial stability of our proposed Center will make it a preferred collaborator and software hub for both new and experienced engineers and scientists. The Center will coordinate the three critical and integrated components (Research, Support and Outreach, Code Development). We will deliver specific contributions in each area that provide immediate and continuing outcomes. Our Primary Objectives are directly responsive to the RFP and our Enabling Objectives provide immediately useful outcomes in support of the Primary Objectives. The objectives components include Novel Research, providing a modularized approach for model codes, providing application programming interfaces (APIs) for extensions, and building crowd-sourced model development. Components addressing Community Support and Outreach include a novel crowd-sourced approach to code infrastructure, along with conferences, a committee system, training classes, an electronic open-access journal, and small grants for outside code development. Model and Code Development components include maintenance and archiving of legacy codes for validation, development of new modularized codes, and creation of “how to” guides for future models.

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A Research Network on Water Solutions (ReNeWS): the U.S. Southeast and Beyond

NCSU Research and Innovation Seed Funding Program(1/01/15 - 12/31/15)

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A Research Network on Water Solutions (ReNeWS): the U.S. Southeast and Beyond

Sponsor: NCSU Research and Innovation Seed Funding Program

Start Date: 1/01/15

End Date: 12/31/15

Abstract

NC State has significant strengths in water resources research, including the human dimension, across multiple colleges (e.g., CNR, CALS, CHASS, COS, Design and Engineering). Yet, there in not a forum for sustained interaction among faculty that facilitates understanding of the rich set of interdisciplinary perspectives on campus and fosters new collaborative opportunities. We envision providing this forum through a series of integrative activities including a brownbag seminar series, a graduate student two-day workshop, and a “Water Summit” conference. Each activity will be designed to deepen cross-disciplinary understanding and work toward the goal of assembling multidisciplinary teams that compete successfully for new funding opportunities. Outcomes will include the participants identifying new cross-discipline research collaborations; identification of curricular opportunities related to water resources; and developing a sustainability plan for the network’s continuance.

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LAS DO3 Task Order 2.8 Analytic Workflow - Berglund

Laboratory for Analytic Sciences(5/31/14 - 5/15/15)

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LAS DO3 Task Order 2.8 Analytic Workflow - Berglund

Sponsor: Laboratory for Analytic Sciences

Start Date: 5/31/14

End Date: 5/15/15

Abstract

Modeling and simulation of analytic workflow dynamics will be investigated within the operational domain. Within fixed organizational contexts, predictive models of performance will be based on two complementary scenarios: (1) people and their mutual relationships and (2) an analyst and tools. Research will investigate the influence on success and productivity of (1) the cognitive processing of individual analysts, or human-centric modeling and (2) social networks within teams of analysts, or social network-centric modeling of analytic workflows. The development of a modeling framework will create insight about the use of social network analysis, human-tool interaction semantics, and agent-based modeling for simulating the effects of communication among individuals in analysis of workflow and for simulating the learning process and network effects of knowledge sharing on the analysis of workflow. A scientist-tool interaction workflow for knowledge extraction will be represented within an agent-based modeling framework to extend traditional scientific workflow simulation. An agent-based modeling approach will simulate a scientist as an agent that interacts with environmental data to create hypotheses and update results through a feedback process. The agent-based modeling framework will be coupled with an existing scientific workflow tool, and a team of scientists will be represented as agents to use the workflow tool, communicate, and update an external knowledge base.

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