Education

Research Description

Dr. Berglund's research interests are in the development of new computational methodologies to explore the influence of feedbacks among social and infrastructure systems. Her research creates new socio-technical models by integrating Complex Adaptive Systems modeling approaches with engineering models to simulate feedback mechanisms and adaptive behaviors among consumers, infrastructure, and environmental systems. New Evolutionary Algorithm-based approaches are coupled with socio-technical models to identify optimal adaptive strategies for managing sustainability, security, and resilience of complex infrastructure and water resources systems. Specifically, she is exploring the sustainability of urban water supply and protection of human health in water contamination incidents. Dr. Berglund specializes in water management; water reclamation and conservation; water security; complex adaptive systems; agent-based modeling; evolutionary computation; human behavior; and social dimensions.

Publications

Agent-based modelling approach to evaluate the effect of collaboration among scientists in scientific workflows

Shafiee, M. E., & Berglund, E. Z. (2019), JOURNAL OF SIMULATION, 13(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2017.1387333

An agent-based modeling approach to project adoption of water reuse and evaluate expansion plans within a sociotechnical water infrastructure system

Kandiah, V. K., Berglund, E. Z., & Binder, A. R. (2019), SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY, 46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.12.040

Genetic Algorithm-Genetic Programming Approach to Identify Hierarchical Models for Ultraviolet Disinfection Reactors

Monroe, J. G., Ducoste, J., & Berglund, E. Z. (2019), JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING, 145(2). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EE.1943-7870.0001492

Multiphase Procedure to Design District Metered Areas for Water Distribution Networks

Pesantez, J. E., Berglund, E. Z., & Mahinthakumar, G. (2019), JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, 145(8). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001095

Allocating countermeasures to defend water distribution systems against terrorist attack

Monroe, J., Ramsey, E., & Berglund, E. (2018), RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, 179, 37–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2018.02.014

An agent-based modeling framework for assessing the public health protection of water advisories

Shafiee, M. E., Berglund, E. Z., & Lindell, M. K. (2018), Water Resources Management, 32(6), 2033–2059. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-1916-6

An integrated approach to place Green Infrastructure strategies in marginalized communities and evaluate stormwater mitigation

Garcia-Cuerva, L., Berglund, E. Z., & Rivers, L. (2018), Journal of Hydrology, 559, 648–660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.066

Assessing the effects of water restrictions on socio-hydrologic resilience for shared groundwater systems

Al-Amin, S., Berglund, E. Z., Mahinthakumar, G., & Larson, K. L. (2018), JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 566, 872–885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.045

Toward effective adoption of secure software development practices

Al-Amin, S., Ajmeri, N., Du, H. Y., Berglund, E. Z., & Singh, M. P. (2018), Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, 85, 33–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.simpat.2018.03.006

Agent-based modeling to simulate the dynamics of urban water supply: Climate, population growth, and water shortages

Ali, A. M., Shafiee, M. E., & Berglund, E. Z. (2017), Sustainable Cities and Society, 28, 420–434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.10.001

View all publications via NC State Libraries

Grants

National Priorities: Transdisciplinary Research into Detecting and Controlling Lead in Drinking Water

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)(4/01/18 - 3/31/21)

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National Priorities: Transdisciplinary Research into Detecting and Controlling Lead in Drinking Water

Sponsor: US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Start Date: 4/01/18

End Date: 3/31/21

Abstract

The EPA lead and copper rule shares responsibility for reducing water lead hazards between water utilities and consumers. The first incarnation of this rule appropriately emphasized utility-centric frameworks with corrosion control, pipe replacement in some circumstances and public education. Over-confidence in the effectiveness of corrosion control and pressures on utilities and regulators to cut corners to support the utility centric framework have resulted in several water crisis in which consumers were falsely informed that their water is safe to drink when it was not. Revelations from the Flint water crisis and its aftermath has undermined consumer trust in government at all levels, the U.S. EPA, water utilities, and potable water quality, in general. The obvious failure of the utility-centric model has caused many consumers to abandon potable water for cooking and drinking, which has serious financial impacts on consumers, negative implications for environmental and fiscal sustainability of cities, and has fueled environmental justice concerns in Flint and elsewhere. This research proposes a bottom-up consumer-centric framework to complement and balance the existing top-down utility-centric approach. Research goals are to 1) help consumers to first understand their personal responsibility to protect themselves from water lead risks dependent on their particular circumstance (e.g., responsible party for corrosion control, responsible party for lead bearing plumbing, source water chemistry), 2) develop quantitative models and resources that help consumers predict their relative risk for elevated lead in water as a function of their water supply, neighborhood and existing plumbing materials, 3) examine low cost sampling test methodologies and approaches that can help consumers verify the model predicted risk, 4) evaluate the costs and benefits of potential interventions, and 5) help restore trust and the water utilities role as an honest broker. Three in-depth case studies will be executed to gather data to inform the quantitative models and the consumer-centric bottom-up framework, which represent extremes of responsibility currently placed on consumers including: 1) private well owners who have 100% responsibility for controlling water lead risks, 2) State of MI residents served by public water supplies who will be protected by the most rigorous lead and copper rule in the nation effective 2018, and 3) residents of small rural potable systems whose are supposedly protected by the existing LCR but who live in circumstances that historically have made compliance difficult to achieve. These case studies will demonstrate that the level of responsibility that is placed on the consumer, ultimately determine the framework and quantitative models that they will need to follow, in order to appropriately share their responsibility.

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Modeling Approaches for Predicting Water Lead Risks in Underserved Communities

Spring Point Partners LLC(8/29/17 - 12/31/18)

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Modeling Approaches for Predicting Water Lead Risks in Underserved Communities

Sponsor: Spring Point Partners LLC

Start Date: 8/29/17

End Date: 12/31/18

Abstract

The EPA lead and copper rule shares responsibility for reducing water lead hazards between water utilities and consumers. The first incarnation of this rule appropriately emphasized utility-centric frameworks with corrosion control, pipe replacement in some circumstances and public education. Over-confidence in the effectiveness of corrosion control and pressures on utilities and regulators to cut corners to support the utility centric framework have resulted in several water crisis in which consumers were falsely informed that their water is safe to drink when it was not. Revelations from the Flint water crisis and its aftermath has undermined consumer trust in government at all levels, the U.S. EPA, water utilities, and potable water quality, in general. The obvious failure of the utility-centric model has caused many consumers to abandon potable water for cooking and drinking, which has serious financial impacts on consumers, negative implications for environmental and fiscal sustainability of cities, and has fueled environmental justice concerns in Flint and elsewhere. This research proposes to develop a model to assist citizens in identifying their risk of lead in water. Research goals are to develop quantitative models and resources that help consumers predict their relative risk for elevated lead in water as a function of their water supply, neighborhood and existing plumbing materials. Two in-depth case studies will be executed to gather data to inform the quantitative models, which represent extremes of responsibility currently placed on consumers including: 1) private well owners who have 100% responsibility for controlling water lead risks, 2) State of MI residents served by public water supplies who will be protected by the most rigorous lead and copper rule in the nation effective 2018.

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LAS D05 Berglund Task 5.5 Advanced Concepts

Laboratory for Analytic Sciences(3/24/15 - 12/31/15)

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LAS D05 Berglund Task 5.5 Advanced Concepts

Sponsor: Laboratory for Analytic Sciences

Start Date: 3/24/15

End Date: 12/31/15

Abstract

Classical game theory is problematic in practice---behavioral economists have shown that human beings do not use the minimax principle when making strategic decisions. Instead, human beings are boundedly rational, in many ways: we do not perform complex mental calculations, we satisfice, we use heuristics, we overestimate rare threats and underestimate common ones, we are biased in favor of the outcomes we seek, and are otherwise flawed in many well-documented ways. To replace game theory, some researchers are exploring Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA), in which the decision-maker builds a model for the strategic thinking of her opponent, and then takes the action that maximizes her expected utility. The decision-maker, usually a Bayesian, places personal or empirical probabilities on all these unknowns, and then makes the choice that has the largest expected payoff. Although potentially complex in practice, in theory ARA is a straightforward application of decision analysis. Our proposal focuses upon defense of critical network infrastructure, and specifically upon a city water supply system. However, there are many other applications that involve networks, such as road systems, air traffic, cybersecurity, and supply chains. Methodological progress on the water supply system problem can be transferred, to a significant degree, to those other applications, although the kinds of attacks, the magnitude of the consequences, and the costs of countermeasures will surely change. This research will build a realistic ARA-ABM model for both radicalization of opponents and strategic investment in defense. We will develop an agent-based model (ABM) that will enable application of adversarial risk analysis to decision-making in the context of protecting a network, such as a road or communications network, or a civic water supply system. Subsequently, an emulator will be used to allow statistical inference on the ABM.

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National Center of Sustainable Water Infrastructure Modeling

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)(9/01/16 - 8/31/21)

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National Center of Sustainable Water Infrastructure Modeling

Sponsor: US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Start Date: 9/01/16

End Date: 8/31/21

Abstract

The goal of the project is to develop a center to support Research, Outreach, and Code Development, which will lead to vital improvements in water resources (WR) software for modeling sustainable systems. Building long-term financial and technical foundations requires that sustainability of effort guides our thinking. The Center must be consistent with EPA’s imperatives and interests, but equally important is a sound plan for income, investment, and delivery ensuring a strong enterprise that survives past the initial public funding. Our team builds on proven models of success for a sustainable Center that will be a force in WR software by developing a community who will have sense of ownership and engagement. The Center will be a beneficial partner to industry as well as meeting the needs of EPA and the WR community. The long-term financial stability of our proposed Center will make it a preferred collaborator and software hub for both new and experienced engineers and scientists. The Center will coordinate the three critical and integrated components (Research, Support and Outreach, Code Development). We will deliver specific contributions in each area that provide immediate and continuing outcomes. Our Primary Objectives are directly responsive to the RFP and our Enabling Objectives provide immediately useful outcomes in support of the Primary Objectives. The objectives components include Novel Research, providing a modularized approach for model codes, providing application programming interfaces (APIs) for extensions, and building crowd-sourced model development. Components addressing Community Support and Outreach include a novel crowd-sourced approach to code infrastructure, along with conferences, a committee system, training classes, an electronic open-access journal, and small grants for outside code development. Model and Code Development components include maintenance and archiving of legacy codes for validation, development of new modularized codes, and creation of “how to” guides for future models.

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A Research Network on Water Solutions (ReNeWS): the U.S. Southeast and Beyond

NCSU Research and Innovation Seed Funding Program(1/01/15 - 12/31/15)

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A Research Network on Water Solutions (ReNeWS): the U.S. Southeast and Beyond

Sponsor: NCSU Research and Innovation Seed Funding Program

Start Date: 1/01/15

End Date: 12/31/15

Abstract

NC State has significant strengths in water resources research, including the human dimension, across multiple colleges (e.g., CNR, CALS, CHASS, COS, Design and Engineering). Yet, there in not a forum for sustained interaction among faculty that facilitates understanding of the rich set of interdisciplinary perspectives on campus and fosters new collaborative opportunities. We envision providing this forum through a series of integrative activities including a brownbag seminar series, a graduate student two-day workshop, and a “Water Summit” conference. Each activity will be designed to deepen cross-disciplinary understanding and work toward the goal of assembling multidisciplinary teams that compete successfully for new funding opportunities. Outcomes will include the participants identifying new cross-discipline research collaborations; identification of curricular opportunities related to water resources; and developing a sustainability plan for the network’s continuance.

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LAS DO3 Task Order 2.8 Analytic Workflow - Berglund

Laboratory for Analytic Sciences(5/31/14 - 5/15/15)

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LAS DO3 Task Order 2.8 Analytic Workflow - Berglund

Sponsor: Laboratory for Analytic Sciences

Start Date: 5/31/14

End Date: 5/15/15

Abstract

Modeling and simulation of analytic workflow dynamics will be investigated within the operational domain. Within fixed organizational contexts, predictive models of performance will be based on two complementary scenarios: (1) people and their mutual relationships and (2) an analyst and tools. Research will investigate the influence on success and productivity of (1) the cognitive processing of individual analysts, or human-centric modeling and (2) social networks within teams of analysts, or social network-centric modeling of analytic workflows. The development of a modeling framework will create insight about the use of social network analysis, human-tool interaction semantics, and agent-based modeling for simulating the effects of communication among individuals in analysis of workflow and for simulating the learning process and network effects of knowledge sharing on the analysis of workflow. A scientist-tool interaction workflow for knowledge extraction will be represented within an agent-based modeling framework to extend traditional scientific workflow simulation. An agent-based modeling approach will simulate a scientist as an agent that interacts with environmental data to create hypotheses and update results through a feedback process. The agent-based modeling framework will be coupled with an existing scientific workflow tool, and a team of scientists will be represented as agents to use the workflow tool, communicate, and update an external knowledge base.

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DO 2 Task 3.7 - Berglund

Laboratory for Analytic Sciences(9/13/13 - 12/31/14)

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DO 2 Task 3.7 - Berglund

Sponsor: Laboratory for Analytic Sciences

Start Date: 9/13/13

End Date: 12/31/14

Abstract

DO 2 Task 3.7 activities

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An Agent-based Modeling Approach to Integrate Social Dimensions and Infrastructure Management for Urban Water Reuse

National Science Foundation (NSF)(9/01/12 - 8/31/15)

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An Agent-based Modeling Approach to Integrate Social Dimensions and Infrastructure Management for Urban Water Reuse

Sponsor: National Science Foundation (NSF)

Start Date: 9/01/12

End Date: 8/31/15

Abstract

The major objective of the proposed research is to create a new modeling approach and discover knowledge about human behaviors to facilitate an improved design and management approach for water reuse and reclamation systems. Urban water resources management requires careful planning to efficiently and sustainably meet increasing demands exerted by human and ecological communities under varying environmental conditions. Population growth, drought, and climate change impose new stresses on water supply, and in drought conditions, water utilities may implement water shortage response plans to reduce demand or augment supply. To create a more reliable water supply, water utilities may reuse water by treating and recycling water for limited uses. The reuse of water can be managed centrally or de-centrally. Centralized water reclamation infrastructure treats wastewater at a central location and distributes reclaimed water to commercial, industrial, and residential users through a designated pipe network. Decentralized water reuse relies on the initiative of individual users who divert a waste stream before it is discharged from their properties. Examples of decentralized water reuse technologies include rainwater harvesting and greywater reuse. To design a centralized water reuse management strategy, water utilities typically calculate an expected load for a treatment facility and design flows for a re-distribution network. Water reclamation infrastructure, however, is connected to both the water users who make decisions about its use and the other urban water infrastructure systems, including drinking water, stormwater, and wastewater networks. A new modeling methodology is proposed here to simulate the influence of consumers on water reclamation performance and the influence of water reclamation infrastructure on the performance of urban water services. We aim to uncover new insights for agent-based modeling based upon empirical assessments of public knowledge of, attitudes toward, and behaviors surrounding water reuse management strategies. Using a nationally representative public opinion survey, we will identify key groups of consumers who may be more or less likely to adopt novel water reuse technologies as they become available from their local water utility. These data will incorporate how these consumers communicate with one another, where they obtain information about water reuse (e.g., mass media), and how they use that information to make decisions. Our survey will also incorporate message testing that will allow us to see how attitudes and behavior among consumer vary in accordance with incentives provided by the water utility to adopt the use of reclaimed water. The objectives of the proposed research are to Objective 1: Develop an agent-based modeling framework to couple water system models with models of consumer behaviors; Objective 2. Empirically measure and analyze relationships among the individuals, social groups, and messages regarding water systems. Objective 3: Use public opinion survey and experimental data to advise and refine the agent-based modeling framework to simulate the emergent performance of potential water reclamation designs.

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WSC - Category 3: Collaborative Research: Water Sustainability under Near-term Climate Change : A Cross-Regional Analysis Incorporating Socio-Ecological Feedbacks and Adaptations

National Science Foundation (NSF)(9/01/12 - 8/31/18)

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WSC - Category 3: Collaborative Research: Water Sustainability under Near-term Climate Change : A Cross-Regional Analysis Incorporating Socio-Ecological Feedbacks and Adaptations

Sponsor: National Science Foundation (NSF)

Start Date: 9/01/12

End Date: 8/31/18

Abstract

The main objective of the proposed research is to understand, identify and quantify uncertainties related to the freshwater sustainability under near-term climate change and population growth by incorporating adaptive responses, feedbacks as well as the needs of hydro-ecological systems and human-environmental systems through a cross-regional synthesis. The specific tasks associated with this objective are: 1) Reduce the uncertainty in targeted hydro-ecological variables under near-term climate change by combining projections from multiple GCMs (from AR5), regional climate models (from NAARCAP) and hydrological models (VIC, SWAT and MODFLOW) 2) Ingest the hindcasts and future projections (i.e., time series) of the targeted variables in reservoir models, groundwater models and ecological models to quantify the resilience and vulnerability of water infrastructure systems and ecological systems over the target basins 3) Identify key policy interventions, supply augmentation and demand reduction measures that will ensure freshwater sustainability under projected population growth and climate change 4) Incorporate the identified consumer feedbacks and societal adaptations with the water infrastructure models through an agent-based model 5) Perform an integrative cross-regional analyses to identify critical tipping points and feedback mechanisms that will reduce the uncertainty in freshwater sustainability under near-term climate change and population growth

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An Integrated Framework for Assessing the Dynamics of Population Growth, Land Use and Climate Change for Urban Water Resources Management

NCSU Water Resources Research Institute(3/01/12 - 2/28/14)

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An Integrated Framework for Assessing the Dynamics of Population Growth, Land Use and Climate Change for Urban Water Resources Management

Sponsor: NCSU Water Resources Research Institute

Start Date: 3/01/12

End Date: 2/28/14

Abstract

: To manage the stress imposed on water supply through urbanization, population growth, and climate change, engineering solutions typically focus on expanding water infrastructure and finding alternative sources of water. The sustainability of a water resources system, however, emerges from the interactions among the environmental, technological, and social characteristics of the water system and local population. For instance in Wake County, NC, municipal water demand increased by 60% in the last decade due to rapid development and urbanization, which has stressed the reliability of Falls Lake and caused frequent water shortages. Instituting management measures, including water restrictions, results in reduced return flows and revenue loss for the city. Thus, consumer decisions to re-locate to an urban area, use water effectively, and comply with restrictions, can impact the health and availability of water resources. This decision-making process is usually adaptive considering both existing conditions (e.g., droughts) and potential/anticipated changes to the system such as climate change, scarcity of resources, and regulations; therefore a feedback process exists between human activities and the natural and infrastructure systems. The objective of the proposed research is to develop a dynamic modeling approach to couple urban growth dynamics, consumer behaviors, and projections of climate change with watershed and reservoir models for identifying sustainable water management strategies for the Falls Lake.

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