Title: Design and Adaptation under a changing world – Opportunities for Synthesis and Convergence Research

Abstract: One of the critical concerns in using climate change projections for design and adaptation is in the uncertainty and variability in the projections depending on the emission scenarios.  It has been shown that this uncertainty in the projections  is at its minimum  over the near-term (10-30 years), which is a critical time scale for infrastructure planning. In this sabbatical talk, I present a methodology for revising USGS flood frequency analysis – a federally mandated procedure for designing spillways and bridges – using near-term climate change projections. Working with the USGS scientists on a federal highway project also highlighted how flood information is viewed and interpreted across disciplines, thereby necessitating the need for synthesis for flood frequency analyses under various thresholds of change.  Such synthesis also needs to promote a convergence approach on quantifying the potential flood risk from the societal perspective. Towards this, I will present potential opportunities for convergence research within NSF and other agencies and  will also discuss ongoing initiatives on urban flooding from the NSF funded convergence accelerator (C-ACCEL) project.

Bio: Dr. Sankar Arumugam is a Professor and University Faculty Scholar in the Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental engineering at NCSU. Sankar spent the sabbatical at the USGS headquarters in Reston (VA) and also at the USGS John Wesley Powell Center for Synthesis and Analyses at Fort Collins (CO).  He also collaborated with the UCAR scientists on performing a review of methodologies on sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting at Boulder, CO.